Sunday, February 6, 2011

Astronomi à la DN (De Novo?)

Kopierätt © 2011, Henry Norman

Angående upptäckten av ännu ett planetsystem har DNs nätupplaga (www.tinyurl.com/5wx9dmn) följande astronomiska pärlor att förmedla till sin läsekrets:

“De fem inre planeterna har en massa 2,3 till 13,5 gånger jordens och en omloppstid på 10–46 dagar. I vårt solsystem skulle de hamna innanför Mercurius omloppsbana. Den sjätte planeten har [ ... ] en massa mer än 300 gånger jordens. [ ... ] Alla sex planeterna är lättare än jorden”

Det första man undrar är vad vad det är för “jord” som hänsyftas, men man kan av sammanhanget antaga att det handlar om vår hemplanet (Jorden (stort "J"!)).

Det andra man undrar är hur systemets stjärna är funtad, med fem planeter (från dubbelt till över tretton (!) gånger mer massiva än Jorden), alla med an omloppstid på futtiga 46 jordedagar eller mindre... Och ändå hamna innanför Merkurius omloppsbana (omloppstid ~88 dagar)!

Det tredje man undrar är var superbjässen (den sjätte av de sex planeterna, ~20 gånger större än Uranus/Neptunus!) skulle hamnat i vårt system (givet att de första fem alla skulle platsa inom Merkurius bana): Jupiter är ~317 gånger mer massiv än Jorden, och håller sig på lite drygt fem gånger längre avstånd från vår Sol än vi...

Det fjärde man undrar är vad som menas med “lättare” i sammanhanget... Något som är mer massivt torde rimligtvis vara “tyngre” (i samma gravitationsfält). Man kan försiktigtvis gissa att “journalisten” (P.O. Lindström) menat skriva att alla sex har mindre täthet än Jorden (håll i minnet att Jorden är mest kompakt av alla solplaneterna (5.5 g/cm3, bara Saturnus är mindre tät än vatten (0.7 g/cm3). I snitt).

Tyvärr saknas (gratis) källupgifter (“Nej, då blir det ju lätt att kontrollera!”). Det närmaste jag kunde hitta var systemet Kepler-11 (www.tinyurl.com/4mal3rh, www.tinyurl.com/6cwhzmt), men inte många av siffrorna i DNs artikel passade in, så det är svårt att säga med visshet...

Det sista man undrar är hur DN-skribenternas alster kontrolläses... Eller tycker DN kanske att, “Asch, så vaddå??? Det är väl ingen som hajar sån’t där?”

Henry Norman
Semi-Retired Computer Systems Analyst
Independent Researcher, Tagaytay City, Philippines

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

The Hunt For Julian Assange

Pentagon’s Weapon of Mass Distraction?

Copyright © 2010, Henry Norman

“If he [Pfc. Bradley Manning] did what he’s accused of doing, he’s a patriot and should get a medal. I think the war criminals should be the ones prosecuted, not the whistle-blowers.”

Bob Meola, Berkeley Peace & Justice Commissioner

In the early seventies, while working as a systems programmer for Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS, in Sweden), the company was in the process of purchasing a new IBM system for their Copenhagen data center, when I alerted SAS’ IT management of a “backdoor” in IBM’s operating system code,[1] which if properly entered would grant privileged access to the program so doing. They wanted proof, so I asked if it would be OK to show that I could “take control” of the shiny new IBM S/370 computer (in Copenhagen) by running a simple non-privileged program remotely (from Stockholm). Nothing damaging, just disable all interrupts, then enter an infinite loop. After which a “re-boot” (in those days called “IPL” (initial program load)) was the only way to restore functionality of the expensive big blue machinery. No big deal. I did get my AC permission, and for effect, I choose to perpetrate the political prank during the official computer inauguration ceremonies.

System dead. Frozen solid. IBM salesreps panicking…

As I had made no attempts to erase my tracks—I could easily have made it darn near impossible to trace the origin of this system freeze—a memory dump analysis immediately revealed that my little hack was the culprit. Boy, were the Danish systems programmers ticked off… They came after me, screaming and yelling and threatening me with bodily harm… They thought that I should at least be fired, preferably worse. Now, why was this happening?

Because I had embarrassed them. Given all their talk of how secure the new system would be, they had been exposed as distributors of bovine feces. Luckily though, I had my get-out-of-jail card up my sleeve, so I managed to keep my job.

The interesting part of this story is that they were not ticked off with IBM (providers of a less than adequate OS), but with me, for making a flaw in their precious system obvious for all to see. For publicizing the leak, as it were… They all seemed to believe (just like IBM) that by keeping the flaw a secret, everything would be hunky-dory. The image of the proverbial ostrich, with its head buried in the sand, comes to mind… Only this time, the big bald bird is farting, too!

Keeping security flaws “secret” does not stop crackers from exploiting them. In a somewhat similar fashion, the Julian Assange persecution is a shameful (and rather silly) witch hunt: silencing him (or WikiLeaks) can and will not stop other unauthorized agencies from obtaining that same data (which in unbowdlerized form presumably could be used to some really evil ends), as long as it stays virtually unprotected by its creators/owners. And greed can be a powerful motivator for people who find themselves positioned to pull a fast one… Opportunity makes the thief!

The issue with Julian Assange and WikiLeaks is not that secrets are being made public. The issue is that these secrets were easily obtainable in the first place (that someone could “rip off the keep”): if WikiLeaks could get them, then—obviously—so can others. WikiLeaks is a symptom of a problem, so locking up Julian Assange and shutting down WikiLeaks doesn’t solve a thing. Besides, maybe, providing a misguided sense of revenge to some medal-encrusted generals… We sorely need these whistle-blowers, for it is obvious that the original checks-and-balances schemes thought up by the founders are no longer working!

The WikiLeaks hoopla only distracts from the real issue (and I would not be surprised if this is the real reason why we have the current situation): that some governments apparently are embarrassingly and amateurishly clueless when it comes to basic security stuff, like protecting state/war/diplomatic secrets.

This is, of course, a major load of eggy goo in the face of governments getting exposed. And how do they respond to the problem? Apply heavy-duty pressure on anyone even thinking of helping this guy! Hunt him down! Defame him! Kill the motherf*ng messenger! The nerve of this guy, disclosing our tax-financed atrocities!

If government (or private!) agencies are worried about getting their secrets exposed, instead of trying to cut out tongues, they should start thinking about how to prevent unlawful access to their dirt: after all, implementing safe storage, data encryption, and restrictive export protocols is not exactly rocket science…

And, come nightfall, how do we know that some of these “leaked secrets” is not simply disinformation? Planted in order to create a specific kind of turbulence, when intentionally “leaked”? Hasn’t this always been a specialty of these cloak-and-dagger agencies and their gun-toting agents?

Henry Norman
Semi-Retired Computer Systems Analyst
Independent Researcher, Tagaytay City, Philippines


[1] The infamous SVC 255, a “user supervisor call” (now, there’s an oxymoron!) introduced by IMS (under OS/ MVT), which needed privileges in order to construct and extend “OSAM data extent blocks” in system queue space. Problem was that all one had to do was to set up a chain of fake control block addresses, in the proper order, and then issue SVC 255 (an assembler language instruction), and shazam! Privileged access! Voice from Poughkeepsie: “Just keep the darn thing a secret, boys! Who reads all those boring manuals anyway…”

Killing civilians is a crime, exposing the killers is not!

Further Reading:

tinyurl.com/26ogqfq Insightful Weblog

tinyurl.com/244dkn2 On Bradley Manning’s arrest

tinyurl.com/2bwvp8u Berkeley suggests declaring Bradley Manning a War Hero

tinyurl.com/2fnkve2 The People’s Voice: Another Good Read


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Hank the Bank

Hank the Bank

Copyright © 2008, Henry Norman

“If BS was currency, Henry Paulson could bail out Wall Street all by himself.”
Quote picked up on the Internet

Here’s a logic puzzle for y’all to ponder:

Who would give up a job paying $250 per hour, for another job, paying only $1 per hour? In somewhat different numbers, who in his (or her) right mind would give up a $50 million compensation package for a “paltry” $191,300 annual salary?

Henry Merrit “Hank” Paulson Jr., that’s who. He gave up his Goldman Sachs CEO title (yearly “compensation” $30-$50 million) July 10 2006, when almost elected president George “Dubia” Bush handed him the keys to the US treasure chest (annual salary: $191,300). One wonders—what’s wrong with this picture?

A prominent architect behind the current “economy in crisis” (euphemism for “complete greed-caused screw-up”), Hank the Bank proposed that US tax­payers ought to dole out $700 billion (that’s seven hundred thousand million) to his old cronies and banking friends. No questions asked. What’s wrong, indeed!

One problem with big numbers is that they are difficult to grasp, to visualize. As Speaker Tip O’Neill allegedly once said, “A billion here, a billion there—pretty soon you’re talking serious money!” And serious it is. Look at a US “billion” (in most of the civilized world, a “milliard”) in terms of time, and you may get a sense of how much one thousand million is: One billion seconds (3 600 per hour, 86 400 per day) represents well over 31 years. That’s right—31.4 years. If banks and other recipients of this bonanza were to pay back $700 billion at one dollar per second, it would take them just under 22 000 years. Make no mistake: a billion bucks is a lot of money (at $25,000 a pop, one billion bucks buys 40,000 trucks), and 700 billion is a whole f(inanc)ing lot more!

The recipe for creating the 2008 CCC (capitalistic cash catastrophe)? Simple:

1) Find a bunch of suckers known for not paying their debts on time (if at all). “Prime” suckers are no good, as they tend to hang in there and pay what they owe, so target the “subprime” crowd, people with documented bad habits when it comes to honoring a contractual debt!

2) Persuade each such sucker to buy a home s/he cannot afford “Before you know it, the value of your house has ballooned so you can refinance the mortgage and buy yourself a brand-new Bentley to boot! Just sign here! Here!!!”

3) Charge the sucker substantially higher interest rate—that is, make sure s/he will follow the debt-paying pattern outlined under (1)—set’em up to fail!

4) Sell the mortgage to a big Wall Street firm, and get paid a bonus up front (as if the mortgage would actually run its course of 30 some years, at high interest rate). “Betting on the come,” big time. A “come” that doesn’t…

5) Wall Street (among several others, Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and—oh yes!—Goldman Sachs (names ring a bell?)) now “repackaged” these risky mortgages into “high yield bonds” (a practice they call “securitizing,” making it sound as if “security” is somehow involved). With the Big Player Wall Street firms “backing” the “securities,” the resulting bonds sold fast, all over the world. Why? Because the bonds now have an implied (but not really existing: call it virtual!) triple-A rating, rock solid, like US Treasury bonds! Not! This was nowhere said out loud, but who has time to read a fat and fine-printed prospectus, when juicy profits are on the line?

At this point in this (somewhat simplified) narrative, it is worth noting that, early 2006, Goldman Sachs announced a record 64% Q1 revenue increase (highest ever for a Wall Street firm—way above analyst estimates—netting over $10 billion in three months(!)), driven by “strong performance in bond trading” and other high-roller transactional games. Did I mention hotcakes?

Later in 2006, almost elected president George Dubia Bush offered Hank Paulson about $190,000 annually to guard the US Treasury—and he took the offer! In 2005, Goldman Sachs awarded Hank a bonus package valued at $38 million. In 2006, his successor Lloyd Blankfein rece­ived a $53+ million bonus (poor impoverished Hank only got a consolation $18.7 million cash bonus for the first half of 2006) so one can safely assume that Hank turned down yet another $30+ million fortune for a measly $190K yearly salary (does this makes sense to anyone?). Good thing he did, though—who could be better suited to deal with the oncoming planet-wide economy crisis, than one of its chief architects and underwriters?

6) After some time—from a few weeks to a couple of years—many of the loans became delinquent (surprise!), their backing “collateral” (insanely inflated property values) worth less than the balance of the loan. The remedy? Go back to (1), but increase the pressure on the “loan officers” to push more mortgages onto “subprime” borrowers, sell the mortgages to Wall Street (or to Fannie, or to Freddie), where they get “securitized” and sold as high yield bonds to unsuspecting (but oh so greedy) banks and insurance companies all over the world (i.e., rob Peter to pay Paul). The people fanning this economy wildfire later claimed ignorance of how precarious the situation had become. People with CEO and CFO titles? (What do these acronyms mean? “Chief Embezzling Officer” and “Chief Fraud Organizer,” respectively?)

At this point (mid December, 2006)—world economy foundations now thoroughly undermined, eroding at an alarming rate—Lehman Bros, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, and Morgan Stanley, all reported record profits. Profit source? Bond (“securitized” mortgages) trading. (Names ring a bell? Lehman CEO Richard Fuld got a $10.9 million bonus in 2006, Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack got $40 million (stock $36.2M, options $4M))—Merry Christmas, ho ho ho!!!

7) Before the putrid reality of this massive scam hits the scammed masses, sell off any holdings of high finance stock—grossly inflated bank, insurance company, or financial institution shares—locking in preposterous profits.

Looking at past stock performance charts, the sell-off silently started around fall 2007: Those “in the know” followed the good ol’ J.P. Morgan advice: “buy low, sell high.” When the shit really hit the fan, a year later, these really fat cats were safely and mightily purring away, looking forward to spending a mere fraction of these ill-gotten profits scoop­ing up panic-sold shares in banks and other companies at cents on the dollar. Behold Citigroup and Wells Fargo, fighting over who gets to cut up the fat Wachovia carcass… And JPMorgan, devouring the remains of Washington Mutual… Wow! The superrich get richer, and suckers get poorer—so what else is new?

8) So what’s the point of orchestrating this asinine bubble, one might ask? This is where the real (well hidden, therefore hard to see) beauty of the scheme comes in: When enough financial institutions, foreign and domestic banks, insurance companies, and investment funds has taken the bait, buying busted-mort­gages backed bonds—lots of them!—you short-sell (borrow bonds, sell them at the top, repay with bonds repurchased after steep declines) and make tons (literally!) of money! Economies everywhere began crumbling—as soon as it was realized that the (supposedly) “triple-A” bonds were next to worthless, banks became insolvent, stock markets slid big time, and before long good solid companies and banks could be picked up for a song, or for pennies on the dollar… We’re talking gigaprofits here, hundreds of billions, maybe even thousands! And best of all, the system can start growing again, so we can start the profit cycle all over!!!

Goldman Sachs profited heavily from the 2007 “subprime mortgage bond” collapse, by short selling subprime mortgage-backed securities—it seems to me as if all along, they knew very well what was coming…

It is sublimely ironic that these high-flying financial finaglers, apparently with no sense of shame whatsoever, tend to give their vile ventures names including words like “security” and “trust”… (well, these practices can also be seen as a big fat middle finger, thrusted in the face of the unsuspecting “investing” public).

According to a Goldman regulatory filing on July 2, 2006, Hank had accumulated 3.2+ million Goldman shares of common stock valued at $490+ million, restricted shares valued at $75+ million, and options to purchase 680,000+ shares (value not known). To get the Treasury job, he was forced to sell the loot (sorry, the lot)—in order to comply with government ethics rules—and a convenient Internal Revenue Service rule waived the 20% taxation. Poor guy—if he had to pay the taxes, he would only get to keep a measly $440 million. Highway robbery!

That’s over half a billion, extracted from subprime mortgage junk, all by itself coming out to an average $14+ million for each year he spent with Goldman Sachs. And his salary as Secretary of the Treasury was $191,300… What indeed is wrong with this picture? Could it be that this was just a ploy orchestrated in order to sell off the GS shares—at top value, and with no major disturbance of the GS share value—with no tax penalty? In return for donations made to the Bush/Cheney election campaign?

It was not only the main chicken coop that was guarded by one of the biggest foxes the game ever saw: as CFO of the US Government, Hank the Bank was also a member of the President’s National Economic Council, and also acting as:

· Chairman of the Board of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds

· Managing Trustee of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds

· Chairman of the Thrift Depositor Protection Oversight Board

· U.S. Governor (USG) of the International Monetary Fund

· USG of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop­ment

· USG of the Inter-American Development Bank

· USG of the Asian Development Bank

· USG of the African Development Bank

· USG of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Was Hank keeping himself busy, or what? Did we have any reason at all to be especially worried about these bullion bullets? Wasn’t Bush and his wealthy cronies interested in “privatizing” Social Security? Who was getting the bulk of the $700 billion bank bailout bonanza, again? And, don’t forget: that was after bailing out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG (to the tune of $200+ billion in paid taxes)!

The question was: how could Henry “Hank the Bank” Paulson compensate a loss of $50 million in bonuses? Could the answer be: by selling $550+ million worth of Goldman Sachs shares—all sold “at the top,” tax free? That’s a cool $110 million, at least twice the bonus he could have received as CEO for Goldman Sachs. And there are indications that he may well be back “home” at Goldman Sachs, sometime in the near future…

Another question is: The people running these firms, receiving yearly multimillion dollar bonuses on top of million dollar salaries, are supposedly the cream of the US financial leadership crop… And none of them saw the economy crisis coming? I mean, seriously: What’s wrong with this picture?

Hank’s original proposal asked for a carte blanche, preventing any review of how the Treasury would actually use the $700 billion in taxpayer funds (increasing the US debt from $10.6 trillion (thousand billion) to $11.3 thousand billion—that’s, on average, about $40,000 for each and every US individual, from infant to oldest!).

A big piece of the meltdown puzzle is missing. I have asked this question left, right, and center, to bankers and to traders, and no valid answer has so far been forthcoming: Where’s the loot? Where did these trillions of dollars in “securitized” mortgages go? The securities for which buyers paid in cash (pension funds, insurance premiums, 401(K) funds)? Ant the funds (some 50 billion (!)) that Bernie Madoff made off with—Where’d all that money go? Why did bank coffers have to be refilled with fresh taxpayer cash?

As for my personal finances—if I had any shares to convert to cash, I surely would have to pay the 20% capital gains tax that the other Hank so craftily evaded... Even though I neither live in nor am a citizen of them there United States. That sounds just like Taxation Without Representation… Now where did I hear that?

Frankly, I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry…

Henry Norman
Semi-Retired Computer Systems Analyst
Independent Researcher, Tagaytay City, Philippines

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Most Mystifying Micronesian Magic!

The following tale of the Pacific is, believe it or not, absolutely true...

We (my wife and I ) lived for over seven years on the island of Yap (one of the island states of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), some 1,000 kilometer south of Guam, way out in the Western Pacific Ocean).

We had a car, a Suzuki Samurai vintage 1987, which I bought new early 1988, and had shipped from Morgan Hill, California to Yap with the rest of my household stuff back in 1999, when I first moved to Yap.

After giving my wife driving lessons (never do this: bad idea!) over at the abandoned old airport runway, down in Gilman, she wanted to get her own personal driver’s license, and we had to use our own car for the “test drive.” Unfortun­ately, the odometer cable had gone permanently out of service—rusted through by the fresh and clean but highly corrosive salt-saturated Micronesian air—several months earlier, so the Yapese inspector refused to let us use our car for the examination ride (working speedometer a requirement).

So I start scouting for another cable. I went over to one of Yap’s two car repair shops, and inquired as to the time needed to order an odometer cable for a Suzuki Samurai model -87. Hiroshi-san (the Japanese owner, a good friend of ours) informed me that Suzuki only stock parts for 15 years, but we could give it a try... and if they still had the item in stock, it would take from six to ten weeks to have it shipped.

My wife was so disappointed, having looked forward to finally be able to drive around the island, on her own, for quite some time… What to do?

After scouring Yap for abandoned cars, asking around in many villages, from Gilman (down south) to Gagil (up north), I actually got some promising leads! I managed to hack my way through thick jungle vegetation, to find a few Suzuki Samurai wreck locations, all thoroughly jungleized, and none of which had a usable odometer cable to salvage. Fat chance…

So I went back to Hiroshi-san, to try my luck ordering a cable from Japan. As I stand there negotiating with the girl behind the desk, Martin (young Yapese guy, worked for Hiroshi-san as a mechanic) came in, and told me he had overheard my earlier discussion with Hiroshi-san, and that he seemed to recall that he saw something like what I was looking for in a scrap heap behind the hospital, a few years back... Grasping for this rather fragile-sounding straw, I said, “Hey! Let’s go check it out!”

In a flash, we’re off to the nearby Yap hospital, and enter the jungle behind it. We finally locate this huge scrap heap, a veritable chaos of old engine blocks and radiators and axles and wheels and many thoroughly corroded things of unrecognizable shapes and sizes, and several big piles of mixed scrappy old car-related stuff.

I remember thinking to myself, “Finding a working odometer cable here… Yeah, right!”, and listlessly poked around in the miscellaneous heap, when suddenly my eye happened to fall on a suspicious-looking small piece of white plastic, sticking out from under one huge pile of junk...

Pulling it out, I discover to my total amazement what it was that I had found: a brand new odometer cable for Suzuki Samurai model 1987, packed in factory plastic, with protective grease. Condition: brand factory new! I had my broken cable removed and the new installed (took Martin all of ten minutes), and my wife got her Yap State driver’s license the very next day!


The subject 1987 Samurai, seven years later (photo snapped in March 2009)

What I have ever since been asking myself, time and time again, is: How could this have happened? What were the chances???

The moral of the story: Be very careful what you wish for! It may well—and especially if you’re assisted by ancient Yapese “white magic”—come true!

Henry Norman

PS. I have stored some photographic memories from my seven years on Yap in a Picasaweb photo album: Check it out via goo.gl/reOUz!

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Analyzing Dawkins' Weasels

weasel n. [Cambridge] A naive user, one who deliberately or accidentally does things that are stupid or ill-advised. Roughly synonymous with loser.

The New Hacker’s Dictionary (Eric S. Raymond)

Richard Dawkins, in his book The Blind Watchmaker (TBW), makes a few bold claims about the “evolutionary power of cumulative selection,” backed up by two of his own computer programs (“Biomorph” and “Weasels”), of which he writes:

“In our computer models […] we deliberately built into the computer the basic ingredients of cumulative selection (emphasis added.)

This statement could lead unsuspecting TBW readers to believe that the output from the two programs really shows how “cumulative natural selection” works, which is not true: Dawkins’ Weasels cheats, as it generates several “mutations” in each “generation,” and protects once matched seed character positions from further “mutations”![1] The above TBW quote should then be evaluated in the light of yet another TBW quote:

“I may not always be right, but I care passionately about what is true and I never say anything that I do not believe to be right.” (emphasis added.)

With no access to the source code for Dr. Dawkins’ version of Weasels, I do not know any details about its inner workings. However, by analyzing its documented output (Table 1, courtesy TBW), a lot can be deduced.

Generation

Evolving Phrase (Within Quotes)

Matches

0 (input)[2]

WDLTMNLT DTJBKWIRZREZLMQCO P

3

1

WDLTMNLT DTJBSWIRZREZLMQCO P

4 (+1)

10

MDLDMNLS ITJISWHRZREZ MECS P

11 (+7(!))

20

MELDINLS IT ISWPRKE Z WECSEL

20 (+9(!))

30

METHINGS IT ISWLIKE B WECSEL

24 (+4)

40

METHINKS IT IS LIKE I WEASEL

27 (+3)

43

METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL

28 (+1)

Table 1: Dawkins’ Shakespeare phrase “evolving” in 43 generations

Presumably, the program spawns a number of “offspring” from a “parent” seed, then scans these in search of improvements, and if one is found, that particular seed is used to parent the next generation, and so on. Dawkins does not disclose his number of offspring per generation, but judging from his program’s uncanny success—target phrase reached in a mere 43 generations(!)—it has to be a lot more than 10, maybe close to 100.

Table 1 indicates that once a seed position has matched its target position it becomes fixed, no longer “mutating” (in geneticist lingo: the DNA sequence has become highly conserved). No explanation is offered as to why the matching positions should be protected from further tampering. This “immunizing” trick is equivalent to “divine intervention”: using such programming, and claim that it explains cumulative selection, is borderline cheating, at best.

The probability of randomly typing a given 28-character string, using 27 different symbols, in a single-step event is (as Dawkins points out): (27-1)28 = 8×10‑41 = 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000008. These are slim odds indeed (read: ain’t gonna happen)! What about Dawkins’ flavor of cumulative selection, wherein already matched positions are protected from further tampering? The probability of getting one match is 27-1 (0.037). Table 1 shows that the output from generation 20 had nine matches, in ten generations! This is precariously close to “single step” selection: The probability for this to happen is (27-1)9 = 1.31×10-13 = 0.000000000000131 (about once every 7.6 trillion tries)… a rather strong indication[3] that programmer Dawkins employs yet another creative ploy: more than one “mutation” per offspring per generation. Much more! All of them favorable! Cheat, cheat! Weasel!

To my eyes, Dawkins’ generation 40 (Table 1) looks rather like a Freudian Slip!

I hacked my own version of Dawkins’ “cumulative selection” (“Weasels: The Next Generation”), and made it available for download from my box.net online folders (use URL http://tinyurl.com/Weasels-TNG. My version only spawns one offspring per generation, which is why it needs more generations to reach the desired phrase). The zip archive holds the complete C source, the executable, the “Weasels TNG User’s Guide,” and an Excel “DNA toy.”



[1] Nature does not guarantee that “once mutated DNA bases will never mutate again.” To paraphrase Dawkins: there is nothing to stop a once burgled house from being burgled again in the future (Unweaving the Rainbow, page 110).

[2] There is a typo (a random mutation? The irony!) in my copy of The Blind Watchmaker (1996 reprint paperback edition 2, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc), resulting in the “sequence of 28 letters” only having 27 letters. Analysis of Table 5 data shows that the third letter from the left had been dropped. I randomly selected and inserted a T.

[3] This is about as likely as finding two unrelated people with identical DNA—and DNA evidence is considered trustworthy enough to sentence criminals to severe penal terms.